- Bitcoin’s YTD performance exceeds 80%
- Investors were betting on a pennant formation in March
- The 28k level invalidates the bullish formation
Bitcoin price bounced from the 2022 lows right from the start of 2023. It rallied more than 80% just a few months.
But Bitcoin YTD performance is in danger if the market is not strong enough to push even higher. Investors bought Bitcoin in March and in the first half of April, hoping that Bitcoin price would reach the measured move of a pennant formation.
A pennant is a bullish continuation pattern. It is made of a consolidation that takes the form of a triangle, and before the consolidation, the market must rally.
A similar rally should follow after the bullish breakout from the triangle. Moreover, the price should reach the measured move, seen above in orange, in about the same time it took the market to rally until the triangle’s formation.
28k is the line in the sand for the pennant
A pennant signals “more of the same.” Because it is a bullish pattern, it signals more upside.
But its “beauty” is that it allows traders to incorporate the time element into the analysis. Whenever this is possible, traders have a competitive advantage. Not only do they have an idea about where the price should go, but also when it should reach that level.
The more time passes without the market reaching the measured move, the more likely it is that the pattern will be invalidated. Such an invalidation would occur if the price drops below the 28k area.
Summing up, Bitcoin’s YTD performance is in danger as time is ticking. A failure to hold above 30k brings the 28k invalidation level into focus.