North Rock Digital’s founder Hal Press said Ethereum (ETH) selling pressure wouldn’t be as high as many predicted after the Shapella upgrade.
In an April 12 tweet, Press explained that available data suggests that “most selling projections were too high and the selling will not be as strong as anticipated.”
According to Press, only 4,000 Ethereum validators have voluntarily exited the validator pool. Of this number, 1600 are individual stakers and are most likely to sell.
“Of this 1600 I estimate conservatively that 50% will sell and 50% will reallocate somewhere else (liquid staking didn’t exist when they started staking). This leaves 800 validators likely to sell, that’s 25,000 ETH. Plus another 50-60k on withdrawals so ~85k ETH total.”
Press noted that even if his predictions were three times low, only 250,000 ETH would be available for sale after the unlocking. According to him, this number is “quite insignificant” considering the overall supply.
With the Shappella upgrade scheduled for later today, several analysts had predicted that the token unlocks could increase the selling pressure on ETH.
Analytical firms predict less selling pressure
Blockchain analytical firm Glassnode projected that 170,000 ETH could be sold after the Shanghai upgrade. The on-chain data aggregator based its prediction on the number of depositors looking to exit.
According to the firm, the impact of any sale on ETH price would be minimal — this is even in an extreme case where the maximum amount of staked ETH and rewards are withdrawn and sold.
“The sell-side volume still falls within the range of the average weekly exchange inflow volume. Therefore, we conclude that even the most extreme case will have an acceptable impact on the price of ETH.”
Meanwhile, Arcana predicts that in the worst-case scenario, only 6% of ETH’s average daily trading volume will be on sale in the first three days after withdrawal becomes available.
CryptoQuant also believes that selling pressure will be modest. It pointed out that 60% of all staked ETH are a loss, which means selling at the moment will be unprofitable.
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